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自动化、人工智能等技术驱动的新一轮技术变革,引发各国对于自身社会保障体系适应性的思考,主要集中在短期失业保护与长期技能提升两种政策取向间的权衡。在风险传导-政策反馈的理论框架下,本文对广东省近9000名制造业劳动者的被替代风险感知和社会保障政策偏好进行研究。结果显示,失业风险感知程度的增加会显著提高劳动者对于失业补助金政策的偏好,但同步抑制了对于技能提升政策的需求,这一现象可归因于劳动者的“短视主义”倾向。进入数字制造时代,制造业劳动者群体依收入、教育、技能等日益分化为政策偏好不同的两大阵营。我国社会保障体系的边缘群体由于灵活就业机会较多,反而比核心群体更倾向于支持技能提升政策,而呈现出与既有文献不同的负向政策反馈效应。最后提出优化失业保险制度设计的政策建议。
Abstract：The new wave of technological transformation driven by automation,artificial intelligence,and related technologies has prompted countries to reconsider the adaptability of their social security systems,primarily balancing short-term unemployment protection against long-term skills upgrading policies.Within a risk transmission-policy feedback framework,this study examines the perceived risk of job displacement and social security policy preferences among nearly 9,000 manufacturing workers in Guangdong Province.The results show that a rise in perceived unemployment risk significantly increases workers' support for unemployment benefit policies,while dampening support for skills upgrading policies—a pattern attributable to workers' "short-sightedness".As the digital manufacturing era unfolds,the manufacturing workforce is increasingly divided into two broad camps with distinct policy preferences,differentiated by income,education,skills,and firm ownership/type.Marginalized groups of China's social security system,who face more opportunities for flexible employment,are more inclined than core groups to support skills upgrading policies,constituting a negative policy feedback effect that runs counter to findings in the existing literature.Finally,the paper proposes recommendations to optimize the design of the unemployment insurance system.
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(1)限于篇幅,匹配结果未呈现,感兴趣的读者可向作者索取。
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(1)根据问卷中“假如最近失业,在附近重新找工作是否困难”设置再就业可能性的连续变量,分数越高,再就业乐观程度越高。
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基本信息:
中图分类号:D632.1;F427;F49;F249.27
引用信息:
[1]吴小芳.数字制造时代的社会保障政策偏好——基于2023年广东省制造业劳动者的调查[J].社会保障评论,2026,10(01):20-35.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金项目“智能制造背景下青年工人‘逃离制造业’的发生机制和应对策略”(22BSH165)