社会保障评论

人工智能技术的颠覆性在经济上表现为创造性破坏，具有显著提升生产率、冲击就业和扩大收入不均等的双刃剑效应，以及加重结构性就业矛盾和过大收入差距的风险。这相应提出制度需求，迫切要求公共就业服务更加积极、社会保障制度更加普惠。鉴于传统社会保障制度面临对象识别、制度适应和技术红利共享等方面的难题，完善社会保障制度的方向和路径，应是从更接近于“剩余型”向更接近于“制度型”的转变。相应地，公共财政特别是社保筹资模式也需要创新理念，探索以“先分配，助增长”为特征的跨代收支平衡模式，以借助人工智能所达到的更高生产率支撑民生建设。这包括从“对物投资”转向更多“对人投资”，提高政府社会性支出占GDP的比重；应对结构性就业矛盾，以普惠保障推动实现老有所养；通过社保兜底消除居民消费的后顾之忧，释放强大内需潜力。

The disruptive nature of artificial intelligence(AI) manifests as creative destruction in the economy, with a double-edged impact of significantly improving productivity, reshaping employment, and widening income inequality, as well as heightening the risks of structural employment contradictions and excessive income gaps. This in turn raises institutional demands, calling for more proactive public employment services and a more inclusive social security system. Traditional social security systems face challenges such as identifying target populations, adapting institutional frameworks, and equitably sharing the dividends of technological progress. Therefore, the direction for improvement should involve a transition from a "residual-type" model toward a more "institutionalized" model. Innovative approaches are also required in public finance, particularly in social security financing, by exploring a cross-generational balance of revenues and expenditures characterized by "pre-distribution to promote growth." Higher productivity enabled by AI should be harnessed to support livelihood improvements. This includes shifting from material investment to human capital investment and increasing the share of government social spending in GDP; addressing structural employment contradictions and promoting elderly care through universal and inclusive security; and eliminating residents' concerns about consumption through social security, thereby unlocking strong domestic demand potential.