社会保障评论

在中国超低生育率背景下，流动人口作为规模庞大且多处于生育旺盛期的重要群体，其生育率呈现出显著的空间差异。本文基于“资源挤压-环境适应”的分析框架研究发现，经济空间挤压加剧了流动人口的收入安全焦虑，福利空间割裂强化了其公共服务获取焦虑，社会空间排斥加深了其社会融入焦虑。上述多维排斥不仅抬升了生育、养育与教育的显性和隐性成本，也削弱了流动人口的收入预期、风险承受能力与社会融入水平，进而推动其生育决策由“敢生、能生”转向“谨慎生育”。因此，应以基本公共服务均等化为牵引，构建以社会保障为支撑的政策支持体系。其中，要重点完善以生育保障为核心的育儿成本社会化分担机制、以公共服务均等化为导向的社会福利保障体系以及以社会支持和权益保障为基础的社会服务体系，从而有效缓解流动人口生育所面临的制度性约束，释放其生育潜能，促进中国人口长期均衡发展。

Against the backdrop of China's ultra-low fertility, the migrant population, a large group consisting predominantly of people in their prime childbearing years, exhibits marked spatial diff erences in fertility. Drawing on the analytical framework of "resource squeeze–environmental adaptation," this study finds that economic spatial squeeze intensifies anxieties about income security among the migrant population, welfare spatial fragmentation heightens anxieties about access to public services, and social spatial exclusion deepens anxieties about social integration. These multidimensional forms of exclusion not only raise the explicit and implicit costs of childbirth, child-rearing, and education, but also weaken migrants' income expectations, risk tolerance, and level of social integration, thereby shifting their fertility decisions from a willingness and ability to have children towards more cautious childbearing. It is therefore necessary to take the equalisation of basic public services as the guiding principle and build a policy support system underpinned by social security. In particular, priority should be given to improving three systems: a socialised cost-sharing mechanism for child-rearing with maternity protection at its core, a social welfare security system oriented towards the equalisation of basic public services, and a social service system based on social support and rights protection. In this way, the institutional constraints on migrant fertility can be eff ectively alleviated, their fertility potential can be released, and the long-term balanced development of China's population can be promoted.