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当前福利国家正经历着人口结构转型、数字化浪潮以及气候危机的深刻冲击，步入结构性转型的关键阶段。这三重变革不仅相互关联，更要求社会超越被动应对，转向积极主动的政策干预，以推动社会向更加包容、公平和可持续的方向发展。基于这一立场，本文提出“三重转型”（triple transition）概念框架，分析人口、数字与气候三大转型的主要特征与核心议题，并探讨其相互交织的影响及整体意义，阐明推动系统性转型的必要性；并识别出不同于工业化和后工业化时期的“第三类社会风险”，构建了一个由变化引致风险、转型衍生风险与潜在未知风险构成的三层风险体系；之后提出以风险缓解、变化适应与机遇拓展为核心的应对战略，助力社会更有效应对三重转型带来的多重挑战；进而提出相应的政策方向与实践路径，旨在为构建一个惠及当代与未来世代、人人共享福祉的福利社会提供理论支撑与政策参考。
Abstract：Modern welfare states are undergoing profound transformations driven by three interconnected mega-trends: demographic change, digitalization, and the climate crisis. This study introduces the concept of the "triple transition" and emphasizes the need for intentional and proactive interventions to move society towards a more inclusive, equitable, and sustainable future. The paper first analyzes the key characteristics and core issues associated with each of the three transitions—demographic, digital, and climate—and explores their interwoven impacts and collective significance. It argues for the necessity of treating these transitions as a unified phenomenon. Furthermore, the research identifies a new category of "third social risks" arising from these transitions, distinct from the risks encountered in industrial and post-industrial periods. The paper proposes a three-layered framework of social risks: risks due to changes, risks from transition processes, and unknown risks. This framework facilitates a systematic understanding of emerging risks and enables the formulation of response strategies. Finally, the study outlines three core policy strategies—risk mitigation, adaptation to change, and opportunity maximization—to address the complex challenges posed by the triple transition. These strategies, combined with specific policy directions and practical interventions, aim to reconstruct welfare states, ensuring well-being and sustainability across generations, contributing to both theoretical and policy discourse.
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DOI：
中图分类号:D57
引用信息:
[1]崔荣骏.三重转型、社会风险与福利国家：构建包容性三重转型的分析框架[J].社会保障评论,2025,9(05):34-50.
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